November Update.

A drying signal now confirms the next move.

Good morning, time for a weather update. Please not this is not an official forecast, this is just a brief summary of where things are headed. The forecasts change all the time, please keep that in mind if you are not a AV Weather or Substack subscriber.

The global tropics have now started to shut down, 3 weeks ago we had 10 systems across the tropics in 3 different basins, now we have only a single cyclone left, Cyclone Fina. This confirms that an atmospheric shift is now underway, and will front run the oceans by a span of about 6 months.

The latest Southern Oscillation Index is now skewed because of Fina, and is showing extreme positive numbers, this now implies we are in a La Niña event. Whilst we are at La Niña thresholds now, this is now sustainable, and the minute the La Niña is declared, this will be gone and back into he negatives next month and across summer, as the El Niño of 2026 starts to develop.

All of the models are now in good agreement that the Madden Julian Oscillation is moving into Phase 7 over the coming few weeks. That means ant tropical activity is going to move East into the West and South Pacific, away from Australia. This is something I have been forecasting since winter, a stronger November followed by a brutally hot and dry summer, even across the tropics of Australia. Only the far North coast, and Eastern QLD will likely see rain in the months ahead, the rest of the country will be in for a lengthy drought type conditions.

The European model now sees this and is beginning to move too a much drier December, this forecast above is the next 46 days, and the bulk of the rainfall you see here is before December 5, after that any rainfall will be across the far North.

Here is another way of looking at it, the anomalies show very much below normal for the next 46 days across the country, so the drying signal is now confirmed, however I still think rain in the far North and East is likely during this period. But certainly, the expected move into El Niño is now coming. What that means is very dry and brutally hot again until April throughout. Cyclones will be likely across the summer up north, and likely be the only chance to see any inland rainfall.

Whilst the ocean temps are hot around Australia, the changes over the last 15 days are foretelling of what is happening, the MJO moving into Phase 7 will cool the waters around Australia further, promoting more higher pressure.

This is the map you may see on social media telling us there is a La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean, and much warmer than normal temps across the Australian region. And whilst that is true, the atmosphere is already moving and will start to transition into an El Niño like state, and then the oceans will follow by winter.

The question then becomes what do we see in 2026, could we see a super El Niño, or will it fail to develop in Spring like 2014, and 2003? I wont know this until early next year, but I favour a strong 2 year event given the current Solar Cycle configuration. We are now just coming off Solar max, and we always get big El Niño after the solar peak. And we could potentiality see a multi year El Niño rather than just one. All of the major ones had a build up of 2 years or so, like 2015, 2004, 1993. Where as the 2009 El Niño at Solar min was a brief event jammed in between two strong La Niña events.

So prepare for a drier year next year, especially across the Eastern side of Australia, QLD and NSW will be hardest hit and Western Australia may see better rainfall in winter and Spring of 2026. This will change of course, and this is just a guide as to what is happening. if you wish to become a paid subscriber here on substack, you will get access to the daily video update, but not access to the AV Weather website.

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Good luck to you all, and stay safe out there.